Posted by Big Ron on March 25, 20 at 10:19:26:
In Reply to: Re: It is estimated... posted by ButterBall Devil on March 25, 20 at 07:38:59:
The small numbers at the start of an epidemic are easy to ignore. But the momentum quickly builds. Take the NYC numbers as a good example. Nobody panicked when the case numbers doubled from 137 to 269 within a few days in early March. But the exponential effect of doubling upon doubling quickly explodes. All of a sudden, the city faced a doubling from 3,954 to 8,114 within the same length of time.
The end of the curve becomes a nightmare. Iím sure that statistical analysis is already complete based on todayís NYC case progression to identify the date where all of NYC can be exposed to COVID-19. The last doubling iteration will be from half the city population to all the cityís residents. That will result in 4 million cases in less than a week. The only way to alter the numbers is to not be there.
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