Epidemiologist Consultant Views


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Posted by Lehi Devil on March 29, 20 at 11:17:08:

In Reply to: To My Friends @ C R posted by B L Z Bubba on March 29, 20 at 09:09:02:

We are a major supplier to the medical industry and can't shut down, so managing our facilities around the world is a major challenge.

Here's what we heard:

COVID-19 is likely the next viral evolutionary step from SARS. SARS was not very infectious and killed its victims too quickly to spread effectively. COVID-19 is far more infectious but less lethal.

The flu attacks sinuses first and deaths are usually from secondary infections. COVID-19 attacks the lungs directly, making it the more serious illness of the two.

While it appears that Arizona is 2-4 weeks behind New York, and the worst is yet to come here, modeling is basically guess work because no one knows what the denominator is until widespread testing for the infection and antibody (post infection) is done. Also, the reporting methodology is vastly different from country to country, and is subject to political tampering - especially in Communist China who are 100% untrustworthy in what they report. The uncertainty includes the real rate of severe cases requiring hospitalization and the overall mortality rate. No one really knows.

It's important to remember that the flu, colds, and allergies are all out there as usual too. The flu season is bad this year because the vaccine was a poor match to the dominant strain. For whatever reason, the data in the US so far shows the rate of people testing positive for COVID-19 is a small portion of those reporting cold/flu like symptoms.

So far our measures of temp testing 3x a shift, having non-manufacturing staff working from home, and enhanced cleaning have been effective. Along with education and a strict don't come in if you have any symptoms of anything policy (including cold/flu/allergies). No one has died and no one has been hospitalized from our workforce of 120k people.

Lehi Devil's personal take:

Not the zombie apocalypse but more than just this year's flu due to the different nature of the illness. As soon as it becomes available, I will take the anti-body test because just about everyone in my office area was sick in January before the travel ban, coughs, fevers, shortness of breath. We had guys visiting from China and guys returning from trips to China. I strongly suspect I've already had it, I felt like crap for a week with two of the three CDC listed symptoms.

This is a giant wake-up call and warning to put changes in place and enhance preparation for the next pandemic. Look at the failures in the international response and our response in the US and put some do-differently's in place so we can jump all over the next one in a timely manner.

Enough with the partisan blame games. If you want to point the finger at someone, point it at the Communist Chinese, who let millions of people travel for Lunar New Year when they knew damn well this thing was communicable from person to person. And maybe a second finger at the Communist Chinese's fluffers in WHO that criticized the travel ban when that was EXACTLY what we needed to do.

Stay safe and healthy and

GO DEVILS!!





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