Posted by mDEVIL! on April 25, 20 at 14:46:26:
In Reply to: Re: Won't change your mind, but fwiw posted by devilinside on April 25, 20 at 12:36:18:
We are now getting better data, and it appears the virus is dramatically more contagious than once thought, but also dramatically less deadly. In fact less deadly but more contagious than some flu strains.
Stanford started doing random samples in Santa Clara and LA Counties a couple weeks ago that are statitistically representative of the populations, giving us a much better understanding of the denominator that has been missing. Similar samples have now been done in Florida and New York now, are planned elsewhere.
Anyone who took QBA221 at ASU understands that you do not have to test the entire population if you build a credible statistically representative sample in each target population.
It is starting to look like the overall death rate is between 0.1% and 0.5% of those that have been infected, and almost all of that is clustered in the high risk population, those with certain underlying health conditions and compromised immune systems, who can be any age, but are mostly older.
As a result, it might actually be a good thing to turn the extremely low risk bulk of the population loose, get life somewhat back to normal, develop herd immunity among the bulk of the population, while at the same time protecting the vulnerable high risk group.
This isn't about politics. A number of scientists are starting to believe this is a better approach. A number don't. I don't have an agenda, I believe in the socratic method, like to hear all the points of view. Obviously, great care would still need to be maintained among the high risk population. No one wants to infect great grandma or anyone to die.
A huge portion of the deaths so far have been among nursing home residents, which have been handled poorly. You would think the Washington state experience would have helped NY with their nursing homes.
Re: flattening the curve, I think it has flattened, which helped keep the health care system from being overwhelmed, and now summer weather will help further.
Wanting to get people's lives and the economy going again does not mean you want to kill people. Both can be done
As far as the stay home & create the next Great Depression until a vaccine arrives crowd, it will not only take a while, but may never happen. Where is the Aids vaccine and the vaccine for the common cold? Herd immunity may be the best vaccine. Time will tell. We do know a Depression would be devastating.
It is analogous to revenues and expenses. If you cut a dollar of expense, you know you get the benefit of it. Hoping for an extra dollar of revenue may or may not happen. As a business owner, you of course manage both at the same time. The vaccine is like the revenue you hope your actions will bring in. Letting people work is certain to provide an immediate benefit.
I'd personally like to take the antibody test, as I have not visited my mom, well into her 80s, since this started, and I used to see her at least once a week. I'm not young, but I do not have the underlying health risks, almost think it would be better if I did get it, or have already had it, as I'd likely have no or mild symptoms, and then would no longer need to worry about visiting my mom once immune. We don't know how long the immunity lasts for this particular virus, but some last for life.
So, after reading that article, what is the point of your question, "What's the best way to transfer the virus from person to person." if the plan is to let the herd build immunity?
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