Posted by mDEVIL! on May 08, 20 at 15:01:41:
In Reply to: Re: The last 4 days have not been bad in AZ (link) posted by L.Devil on May 08, 20 at 14:17:21:
... to better understand what the death rate & level of contagiousness truly is, and to assess how many may temporarily are carriers, and will possibly develop herd immunity. All useful data.
However, my point was you cannot accurately say AZ is getting worse based on infection numbers rising, because more testing reveals more infection numbers, but just because the testing revealed them does not necessarily mean there are more infections.
In fact, if you assume the hospitalization rate of those infected is static, you can deduce that if hospitalizations are down, new infections must also be down. If hospitalizations were down when infections were actually up, it would tell you the virus is weakening.
ASU just published study saying they thought the virus was mutating, becoming weaker, though others have not yet verified it.
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