The data

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Posted by B L Z Bubba on June 17, 20 at 07:24:26:

In Reply to: Re: Suggest ignoring news, go straight to data (link) posted by ButterBall Devil on June 16, 20 at 16:23:41:

Lots of confusing facts and figures to consider here. The Maricopa data reveals that there were 40 new hospitalizations in MC. The AZDHS stated 1 in the whole state. Someone's wrong. How difficult is it to keep track of this? Maybe our governmental health services need an overhaul.

The Maricopa site states very clearly that, "The number of people diagnosed with COVID-19 in Maricopa County per day is steadily increasing. This is because there is increased spread in the community." (Their words.) There is a difference between the term increased spread and increased testing.
This increased spread doesn't sound like good news.

The Maricopa site also clearly states that the recent numbers are likely to increase as there is a 10 day reporting delay. Confusing. Apparently that data will change for the worse.

While reporting their data they state in no uncertain terms that their data presents a more severe picture than what is actually happening in the community. What? How does this make sense? They don't state why they suggest this. Is a hospitalization not a real hospitalization? It sounds like they're saying, here are the facts but don't pay any attention to them.

Because diagnoses most often precede hospitalizations one might expect that future hospitalizations are likely to increase in similar fashion several days after. Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator of today's new cases and new cases are a lagging indicator of today's spread due to the incubation time. The trend line is not encouraging. The trajectory of new cases is nearly vertical. This is how it looked in New York a couple of months ago and we know how that turned out. Maybe it's different now? Why?

Beyond all the confusing numbers one thing seems abundantly clear. Community spread is occurring at a substantially more rapid pace than it was prior to the shutdown. I suppose that's OK because we have room for more in the hospitals, ICUs and mortuaries. It is true that most people recover. Unfortunately, these recovered folks will most likely pass along the disease to others who might not be as fortunate. That is the risk we take when we decide to attend crowded super spreader events.

I suggest that the numbers will become much worse by football season based upon available data and the anecdotal interviews I've seen with Arizona's doctors all over the national and local news. Maybe these doctors are all just trying to scare us like the news.

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