All good questions with no simple answers


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Posted by Big Ron on July 05, 20 at 20:49:51:

In Reply to: Re: Slow day trivia posted by Xdevil on July 05, 20 at 16:56:52:

When I did the study, I downloaded 2004-2010 ESPN Top 150 players and looked for team win correlation by position. The first obvious glitch I encountered was skill positions with measurable statistics are favored by the rating services. That's the same bias that makes sure that we will never see a Center win the Heisman Trophy. Here is a breakdown of the 1050 ESPN Top 150 for that 7 year study. Most positions did not have enough numbers to give a good statistical correlation.

ATH - 43
CB - 63
DB - 36
DE - 69
DL - 53
DT - 54
FB - 2
ILB - 28
LB - 41
OC - 10
OG - 27
OL - 39
OLB - 58
OT - 61
QB - 92
RB - 131
S - 58
TE - 43
WR - 142

The Lost Boys Model - Florida:
The next thing I discovered is that teams waste talent by signing an overabundance of a particular position. Florida had 6 ESPN Top 150 QB signed including Heisman winners Tebow and Cam Newton. Many good QBs sat and watched Tebow play. Florida also signed 10 WRs, 8 DT and 7 OTs off the ESPN 150 list. That meant a lot of talent was sitting on the bench burning scholarships that could have been used for other positions. With all that accumulated talent, Florida still dropped to 8-5 in 2010 and 7-6 in 2011.

This study shaped my mantra about a balanced roster. The feast/famine recruiting at positions carries through the roster for years and causes roster weaknesses that opponents can exploit. Also, the scarcity of highly rated linemen dictates that teams find the best possible body types - tall, arm length, natural size and strength, agility - and then train the heck out of them. Most people see linemen as aggressive giants, but the positions are actually cerebral and technique oriented. Linemen that can maintain their disciple and technique through 4 quarters of heat and fatigue are worth their weight in gold. (Juan Roque remains my gold standard of OTs. His kick step on the last play of a game looked exactly like his first of the game. He seldom lost his power base. And he learned the position after switching from defense.)



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