Several curves tell different stories


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Posted by mDEVIL! on July 16, 20 at 15:56:23:

In Reply to: We had flattened the curve... posted by cudevil on July 16, 20 at 14:20:45:

The death, ICU, and hospitalization curves interest me much more than the cases curve, which is the only one that appears out of control nationally.

The deaths curve is up some in recent days, but still way below levels a while back, not even close nationally, which is encouraging, though the mild uptick is concerning, and deaths are a lagging indicator, so what we are seeing now is more reflective of hospitalizations a couple of weeks ago.

There are a few pockets in the Sunbelt where health care capacity could get tested, Houston or example, but most have not yet added the extra capacity they have prepared for, and unlike a while back, ventilators, PPE, etc, are no longer in shortage, and treatments are better.

Many states have reopened with no hot spots, so I'm not sure that has driven the uptick as much as other factors.

I thought summer temps would help a while back, like with other virus strains, but I must admit, I was certainly wrong on that. The sunbelt states are the areas with the big upticks, and one of them, CA, has never opened up to the extent TX or FL did. I've heard a couple of theories, people stay inside in the AC when it is hot, etc, but opening the economy up is clearly only part of the equation.

Re: herd immunity, the jury is still out. We know there is antibody and T cell immunity. Some people have immunity without ever getting the virus, and everyone who has been through it gets some level of immunity, but some studies seem to think it may be short lived unfortunately.

Re: vaccines, there has been some very encouraging news on that front this week, in terms of the effectiveness of a couple of them on the virus, and limited side effects, but it will take some time before all the stages of testing are complete, and one can be mass produced. It would be unprecedented speed, but there seems to be a chance we will have one before year end or early 2021.




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