don't give up.....


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Posted by NC Devil on August 05, 20 at 11:58:19:

In Reply to: There is absolutely no doubt... posted by Oside Devil on August 05, 20 at 07:29:35:

But understand that after 6 months, less than 5,000,000 Americans have contracted (and mostly) recovered from the virus.

The common cold is a coronavirus, and maybe when it first appeared, it was as deadly as covid... we will never know. BUT we do know there is no vaccine/cure for the common cold today.

lets assume (as most Dr's do) that the number of reported cases is vastly understated, and multiply the number by 10 - that would be 50,000,000 people. this brings two data points to bear -

1) the virus is less lethal than originally estimated (not so scary)

2) 50,000,000 is about 15% of the US population.... to reach herd immunity of 70% we need another 180,000,000 people to be infected, and mostly recover. (we have a long way to go)

If we follow the current thinking, of suppress and delay.... it would take 2.5 years to reach the 70% number of the US population... while waiting for a vaccine that may never materialize.

two fallacies of the above argument -
1) spread is not linear, the more people infected, the faster they infect more people.
2) if an effective vaccine appears tomorrow, then no more waiting.

But do we want to be sheltered in place for even another year? the economy as we know it would no longer exist... potentially two school years lost...

1) let's not be afraid.
2) let's protect the vulnerable (my mom is 92 and lives in a nursing home, with several active cases - she is scared and rightly so, but they are in a strict lock down, which is all they can do)
3) let's stop sanitizing our hands every 15 minutes and go outside and roll in the dirt, build up our immune systems, and "bring it on" - I am 62, with mild AFib, which counts as heart disease, if I am not healthy enough to get over this, then let the size of the herd decrease.

This virus could be God's version of a "green new deal," and I am not being political, I am being pragmatic.



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