I have no dog in this fight


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Posted by Big Ron on September 09, 20 at 15:41:43:

In Reply to: Except that isn't math or statistics... posted by cudevil on September 08, 20 at 20:21:06:

But we should all quit looking for some sort of Holy Grail of pure answers. As soon as you referenced statistics, you left the world of absolute answers. Arguing over the tolerances or bandwidth of death curves gets us no closer to defining the acceptable path ahead.

A few months ago, I posted that Epi Curve doubling rates were going to lead to a terrible June. That was a statistical modeling prediction based on the then-current doubling rate. Isolating some of the population, face masks, uncontrolled family gatherings, spring break parties, etc, might be factors that altered the doubling rate a bit, but such statistical based curves still retain their general characteristic shapes. June turned out to be a bitch. No big surprise.

But now we are on the backside of the curve. STATISTICALLY, the daily rate of new cases should continue to fall back towards zero with some sort of symmetry. But zero is an asymptote that theoretically will never be reached. So the question becomes - when is it worth taking the risk? 500 cases a day? 250? 125? 60? 10? Any number one chooses above zero defines a new normal and establishes a number for acceptable victims.

One ASU student a day sort of sounds like an acceptable case rate. Lets play ball. But my sister contracted COVID in assisted living and all of a sudden one case seems unacceptable to me. I sure as hell have no good answer. I can't even figure out what the basis of a good answer should be. Maybe a discussion centering on the basis of an path forward would be more productive than one guessing the accuracy of cases and deaths.


https://tableau.azdhs.gov/views/EpiCurve/EpiCurveDashboard?:embed=y&:showVizHome=no&:host_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftableau.azdhs.gov%2F&:embed_code_version=3&:tabs=no&:toolbar=no&:showAppBanner=false&:display_spinner=no&iframeSizedToWindow=true&:loadOrderID=1



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