Pandemic Scholarship counting - The new math

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Posted by Big Ron on December 30, 20 at 11:37:21:

Am I missing something? Forcing 5 years of player recruiting into a 4 year 85 player limit is madness. It appears as though schools will need to dump a ton of players into the Transfer Portal to contend with NCAA scholarship limits and still be able to recruit new players. Here is my simplistic math.

I could not find an accurate count of ASU scholarships by class, but published USC data offers a representative model. USC's 2020 class now contains
25 Freshmen, 23 Sophomores, 16 Juniors, 14 Seniors on scholarship. It got to these numbers by shedding players - Transfer Portal out: JT Daniels (Georgia), WR Velus Jones (Tenn), QB Jack Sears (Boise State), WR Devon Williams (Ore.), S OL Clayton Bradley (UNLV), Austin Jackson (NFL Draft), Jay Tufele (NFL Draft), [Frank Martin, Bernard Shirmer, Jacob Lichtenstein]-Covid Opt-out and placed on non-athletic scholarship. Then add its 22 player recruiting class and USC will play in 2021 with 100 scholarship players on its roster. The 10 player departures may give us a glimpse into the future.

The USC 2021 roster profile should be as shown below, with 86 counted scholarships and 14 exempt seniors for a total of 100 scholarship players. The 47 is the total of the 2020 freshmen plus the 22 new arrivals from the 2021 recruiting class. This actually puts them 1 player over the 85 NCAA limit, so expect somebody to leave.

47 with 4 years eligibility
23 with 3 years eligibility
16 with 2 years eligibility
14 with 1 years eligibility and NCAA exemption
100 Total Scholarships

In 2022, things get sticky. Everybody comes back with protected eligibility, the double sized freshman class moves through the system and the senior exemption goes away. Available 2022 recruiting class scholarships will depend on player departures as the double freshmen class bubble works its way through the roster.

0 with 4 years eligibility if no players leave.
47 with 3 years eligibility
23 with 2 years eligibility
16 with 1 years eligibility
86 Total Scholarships

Then 2023 looks like this

15 with 4 years eligibility - 15 new recruits if no players leave.
0 with 3 years eligibility
47 with 2 years eligibility
23 with 1 years eligibility
85 Total Scholarships

USC cannot go zero for a recruiting class and maintain roster balance. Nor can it be limited to 15 scholarships over a 2 year period. That is worse than being placed on probation. USC will need to shed 20-30 players into the Transfer Portal. With its heavy concentration of 4 star players, that means a lot of USC talent will be hitting the street. Now multiply that scenario by all the D1 teams and you have chaos. Everybody will be facing the same scholarship limits plus many teams will be releasing additional players to farm better talent from the Transfer Portal. The NCAA will be forced to make additional accommodating rules changes or the big programs will just revolt and the NCAA will collapse.

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